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25 03, 2024

Weekly Market Commentary – The central banks have spoken.

2024-03-25T14:51:02-04:00March 25th, 2024|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets The central banks have spoken. No one expected the United States Federal Reserve to announce a rate change last week – and it didn’t. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments and the actions of other central banks led to new records being set in stock markets around the world, reported Randall Forsyth of Barron’s. “…the world’s central banks, led by the U.S. Federal Reserve…have all but green-lighted lower policy interest rates in coming months in the expectation that inflation will continue to make downward progress without triggering recessions. The Fed’s counterparts at the European Central Bank and [...]

18 03, 2024

Weekly Market Commentary – Here’s the tea on stock markets and presidential elections.

2024-03-18T16:44:07-04:00March 18th, 2024|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets Here’s the tea on stock markets and presidential elections. Last week, a slew of headlines mentioned stock market bubbles and frothy valuations. The implication was that markets might be headed lower because they’ve risen so high. Last Wednesday, Lewis Krauskopf of Reuters reported: “Some market participants believe the relentless U.S. stock rally is poised for a breather, even if it remains unclear whether equities are in a bubble or a strong bull run. The benchmark S&P 500…is up over 25% in the last five months, a phenomenon that has occurred just 10 times since the 1930s, according [...]

11 03, 2024

Weekly Market Commentary – The week got off to a good start…

2024-03-11T14:08:10-04:00March 11th, 2024|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets The week got off to a good start... In testimony before House and Senate committees, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell noted that prices had been falling and unemployment rates remained quite low. As a result, he expected the Fed to begin lowering the federal funds rate in 2024. “I think we’re in the right place,” he said. “We’re waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably at two percent. When we do get that confidence—and we’re not far from it—it’ll be appropriate to begin to dial back the level of restriction so that we [...]

4 03, 2024

Weekly Market Commentary – The bull market is alive and well.

2024-03-04T17:57:57-04:00March 4th, 2024|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets The bull market is alive and well. “We know what investors are thinking,” reported Jacob Sonenshine of Barron’s. “The gains can keep coming, driven by an economy that is neither too hot nor too cold…The economy is growing, but only moderately, and the Federal Reserve can keep thinking about when it can start cutting interest rates…This dynamic is why nobody wants to miss out on the rally—and why they think it can keep going. A recent survey from Investors Intelligence shows the number of bulls outnumbered their bearish counterparts by the widest margin since late 2021.” Recent [...]

26 02, 2024

Market Commentary – Optimism abounds!

2024-02-26T13:21:45-04:00February 26th, 2024|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets Optimism abounds! Enthusiasm for everything related to artificial intelligence (AI) drove a global stock market rally last week. Equity markets in the United States, Europe, and Japan hit all-time highs after a leading chipmaker reported better-than-expected earnings and an extraordinary surge in demand for its artificial intelligence-targeted processors, wrote Rita Nazareth of Bloomberg. Investors took the news “as evidence that the generative AI boom is both real and spreading. [The company’s] spectacular earnings report and forward guidance are spurring investors to buy shares of almost any company with a stake in the AI race—everything from computer and [...]

20 02, 2024

Weekly Market Commentary – Don’t fight the Fed.

2024-02-20T14:03:48-04:00February 20th, 2024|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets Don’t fight the Fed. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States. A longstanding bit of investment wisdom is: Don’t fight the Fed. It means that investors should align their strategies with the Fed’s monetary policy. Economic growth is influenced by Fed policy, and stock markets tend to reflect the economy, rising when it grows and falling when it contracts. As a result, Kent Thune of The Balance reported, when the Fed is: Tightening monetary policy by raising the federal funds rate to slow economic growth, investors should be cautious. Easing monetary policy [...]

12 02, 2024

Weekly Market Commentary – China is out of favor with investors.

2024-02-12T14:42:03-04:00February 12th, 2024|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets China is out of favor with investors. For decades, China was among the fastest-growing economies in the world. Its real gross domestic product, which is the value of all goods and services it produces, grew by about nine percent a year, on average, from 1978 through 2022, according to The World Bank. However, the pace of economic growth in China slowed over the last decade and dropped sharply during the pandemic. Many investors expected China to rebound quickly in 2023 after its Zero Covid policy ended, but that hasn’t happened. Instead, “Exports weakened and deflation deepened, but the big letdown [...]

5 02, 2024

Weekly Market Commentary – We’ve been hearing a lot about layoffs.

2024-02-05T15:07:10-04:00February 5th, 2024|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets We’ve been hearing a lot about layoffs. Last week, the January 2024 Challenger Report found that employers based in the United States cut more than 82,000 jobs in January. That’s a lot. In December 2023, about 35,000 layoffs were announced. The January job cuts were concentrated in a few industries, and the reasons for the cuts included companies restructuring to lower costs and reorienting toward artificial intelligence. Layoffs often are a sign the economy is losing steam, but that doesn’t appear to have been the case in January since employers added more than 353,000 new jobs during [...]

30 01, 2024

Weekly Market Commentary – Even better than expected!

2024-01-30T11:17:02-04:00January 30th, 2024|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets Even better than expected! The United States economy is not performing the way anyone thought it would. Instead of tipping into a recession last year, it crushed expectations. Gross domestic product, which is the value of all goods and services produced in the country, expanded 2.5 percent, after inflation, for the year. U.S. economic growth 1Q 2023:               2.2 percent 2Q 2023:               2.1 percent 3Q 2023:               4.9 percent 4Q 2023:               3.3 percent It’s interesting to note that the U.S. economy has been outperforming other developed countries’ economies. For example, GDP for the Group of [...]

22 01, 2024

Weekly Market Commentary – Are you feeling optimistic or pessimistic?

2024-01-22T15:15:22-04:00January 22nd, 2024|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets Are you feeling optimistic or pessimistic? Consumers are a force to be reckoned with – and we’re all consumers. We buy coats and tweezers, electricity and bread, screens and fishing poles. We download apps and games and educational materials. As consumers, we are vital to the American economy. In fact, consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy when it’s measured using gross domestic product or GDP. Many consumers are feeling more optimistic than they have in a while. Last week, the University of Michigan (UM) reported that consumer sentiment is soaring. After a double-digit [...]

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