17 06, 2019

Weekly Market Commentary – Are we on the cusp of change?

2019-06-17T22:30:07+05:00June 17th, 2019|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets Are we on the cusp of change? The United States is doing quite well. Randall Forsyth of Barron’s reported: “…the U.S. economy and stock market both seem to be doing better than OK, thank you, as the expansion and bull market celebrate their 10th anniversaries. Unemployment is around the lowest level in a half-century. The worst thing seems to be that inflation continues to run slightly below the Fed’s 2 percent target, a problem that might strike some as similar to being too rich or too thin.” The economic facts are encouraging, but recent events have potential [...]

10 06, 2019

Weekly Market Commentary – Surprise! It was a great week for markets.

2019-06-10T23:27:23+05:00June 10th, 2019|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets Surprise! It was a great week for markets. Since the U.S.-China trade conflict resumed in early May, investors have been off balance. The possibility of escalating tariffs on Mexico heightened economic uncertainty. Then, last week’s unemployment report arrived with less than stellar news – just 75,000 jobs were created in May. The number was well below expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised March and April employment numbers downward, too.1, 2, 3 We know investors hate uncertainty. So, why did major U.S. indices rally? The answer may be hope. There was hope negotiations with Mexico would produce [...]

3 06, 2019

Weekly Market Commentary- Understanding Tariffs

2019-06-03T22:51:28+05:00June 3rd, 2019|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets Tariff trouble. Just two weeks ago, the U.S. government lifted tariffs on Mexico and Canada. So, it was a surprise last week when President Trump tweeted the United States would impose an escalating tariff on all goods imported from Mexico until the flow of migrants to the United States’ southern border stops. The pending tariffs have potential to hurt both American and Mexican economies, reported The Economist. “Two-thirds of American imports from Mexico are between related parties, where one partner owns at least 10 percent of the other, so any tariff will cause problems along tightly integrated [...]

21 05, 2019

Weekly Market Commentary – Trade war trade-off

2019-05-21T01:12:35+05:00May 21st, 2019|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets Trade war trade-off. There was some good news on trade, last week. The United States took steps to reduce trade friction with the European Union, Canada, Mexico, and Japan. “The United States on Friday reached an agreement with Canada and Mexico to remove steel and aluminum tariffs, which had been a persistent source of friction across North America over the past year. The deal on metals came as Mr. Trump decided not to press ahead immediately with levies on EU and Japanese automotive products – despite declaring that foreign car and vehicle imports represented a threat to U.S. national security,” [...]

13 05, 2019

Weekly Market Commentary – Trade talk trouble took a toll last week

2019-05-13T23:32:06+05:00May 13th, 2019|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets Trade talk trouble took a toll last week. Major U.S. stock indices moved lower when trade talks between the United States and China broke down. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Index all finished the week down between 2 percent and 3 percent, reported Ben Levisohn of Barron’s. Despite the weak weekly performance, the S&P 500 remains up 14.9 percent year-to-date. The deadline to settle U.S.-China trade issues was Friday. When it passed without any resolution, the U.S. increased tariffs on Chinese goods to 25 percent, reported the BBC. The [...]

7 05, 2019

Weekly Market Commentary – The chaperone and the punch bowl

2019-05-07T19:53:38+05:00May 7th, 2019|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is off to its best start in 20 years. Despite the exceptional performance of U.S. stock markets year-to-date, and data that suggest economic growth remains steady, some analysts and investors have been pecking at Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. They’re keen for the Fed to implement a rate cut, which could stimulate economic growth and help push stock markets higher, because inflation is lower than ideal, reported Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir of Reuters. Recent data suggest core inflation is at 1.6 percent. That’s below the Fed’s target rate of 2 [...]

29 04, 2019

Weekly Market Commentary – Not an ‘Avengers End Game’ spoiler, there was big news last week

2019-04-29T22:05:54+05:00April 29th, 2019|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets It wasn’t an ‘Avengers End Game’ spoiler, but there was big news last week. Economic growth in the United States was strong during the first quarter. The Bureau Of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced gross domestic product (GDP), which is the value of all goods and services produced in the United States, increased by 3.2 percent. The estimate came as a surprise. It was well above the consensus forecast of 2.3 percent, according to Randall Forsyth of Barron’s. In addition, as The Economist pointed out, “This year America’s economy did not get the freshest of starts. A government [...]

24 04, 2019

Weekly Market Commentary – And the answer is….

2019-04-24T19:18:52+05:00April 24th, 2019|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets And the answer is… A Jeopardy! contestant captured the nation’s attention last week by setting multiple records for the most money earned in a single episode. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has been setting some records, too. Michael Mackenzie of Financial Times explained: “Less than four months through the year, the S&P 500 including the reinvestment of dividends has returned to record territory, along with the technology sector…Around the world, many benchmarks enjoy double-digit gains, led by China’s CSI 300 index, having risen more than a third already during 2019.” Pessimism about economic growth prospects has [...]

16 04, 2019

Weekly Market Commentary -Investors took an intermission

2019-04-16T17:17:26+05:00April 16th, 2019|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets Investors took an intermission. The curtain appeared to close on the first act of 2019 last week – and what an impressive act it was. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index delivered some dramatic returns and is less than 1 percent away from a new all-time high. Despite relatively few shares changing hands, major U.S. indices eked out gains. Ben Levisohn of Barron’s explained: “Trading volume was tepid at best. This past Monday, fewer shares changed hands than on any day since December 24 – when the market closed early for Christmas. Tuesday’s volume was lower than [...]

8 04, 2019

Weekly Market Commentary -2019 brought a welcome reversal

2019-04-08T22:18:05+05:00April 8th, 2019|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets The first quarter of 2019 brought a welcome reversal. Last year, Barron’s published a group of market strategists’ expectations for 2019 performance. The article came out in mid-December, before the steep year-end stock market decline. At that time, all of the strategists agreed: The S&P 500 Index would move higher during 2019. Their expectations appeared to be wildly optimistic when the Index lost 3.5 percent during the last two weeks of 2018, and finished the year down 6.2 percent. Overall, at the end of 2018, strategists expected the Index to reach 2,975 by year-end 2019. Despite starting [...]